Nationwide runs final road course race of the season at Montreal

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/24/2010 - Montreal, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Sunday, August 29. Race: NAPA Auto Parts 200. Site: Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Track: 2.710-mile, 14-turn road course. Start time: 2:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 74. Miles: 200.466. 2009 winner: Carl Edwards. Television: ESPN 2. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

The Nationwide Series travels to Montreal for the third and final road course race on the 2010 schedule. Carl Edwards won the inaugural event at the Road America road course in Elkhart Lake, WI in June. Marcos Ambrose won at Watkins Glen International for the third year in a row earlier this month.

Rain has been a huge factor in the last two Nationwide races at the 2.710- mile, 14-turn Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. The weather forecast for the Montreal area this weekend calls for mostly sunny skies with no chance of precipitation.

Last year, Ambrose led the field when a shower moved over the area with 16 laps remaining. NASCAR instructed teams to pit, giving them five minutes to change to rain tires and install a windshield wiper if needed. NASCAR's decision to continue the race on a wet track surface led to numerous spins that forced several late-race cautions, including one for a two-lap overtime finish. Ambrose pulled away on the final restart, but Edwards chased him down before the Aussie slid on the final turn of the last lap. Edwards made the pass and then claimed his third Nationwide victory of the season and his first on a road course.

"Montreal is a full-on go all the way through the gears, come all the way to a stop, turn right or left, then you go all through the gears, come to a stop and turn left or right -- it's a real stop-and-go racetrack," Edwards said. "I would say on a scale, Sonoma is really swoopy, smooth and finesse. Watkins Glen is in the middle, and Montreal is really aggressive."

Ambrose has led the most laps in the first three races at Montreal, but victory has eluded him here. He lost the 2008 race after being penalized for speeding on pit road late in the race. Canadian Ron Fellows went on to win the rain-shortened race. Fellows battled wet track conditions and capitalized on an early-race pit strategy to score his fourth career Nationwide victory. All four of his wins have come on road courses.

Kevin Harvick won the inaugural event in 2007, one in which Robby Gordon thought he had won after he and Ambrose took turns spinning each other on the final lap.

NASCAR determined that Gordon should be in the 14th spot for the final restart, but Gordon refused to move from behind Ambrose. The race resumed with Gordon right behind the leader. Gordon took out his frustration on Ambrose, spinning him in the second corner. Harvick then inherited the lead, and after holding off Patrick Carpentier, was declared the winner.

Harvick is not competing in Sunday's race at Montreal. Road course ace Max Papis will drive Harvick's No.33 Chevrolet.

Robby Gordon returns to Montreal since the inaugural race here in '07.

Brad Keselowski, who currently holds a 313-point lead over Edwards, has yet to win a Nationwide road course race in eight attempts. However, Keselowski has finished no worse than fifth in the last three road course events.

"The more you run the road courses, the better you get at it," Keselowski said. "The best part about Montreal is the people, so I enjoy the city and the atmosphere."

Several Canadian drivers are entered in this event. Jacques Villeneuve, the former Formula One world champion and Indianapolis 500 winner, returns to the track that bears his father's name

"I've been racing there over the years since 1993," Villeneuve said. "I've been on the track a lot of times, and to be able to go back in a NASCAR race is great. Last year, we had a good race, and we were competitive. We're going back this year with the same car from Elkhart Lake [Road America], which was very good. We've saved it for this race, because it is good in the tight corners, which should be a good positive for Montreal."

Patrick Carpentier, Andrew Ranger, who finished third in this race last year, J.R. Fitzpatrick, Pierre Bourque and Fellows are the other Canadians scheduled to compete at Montreal.

Forty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for Sunday's NAPA Auto Parts 200.

Kyle Busch is not entered for Montreal, since he is competing in Friday's Camping World Truck Series race at Chicagoland Speedway. Brad Coleman will drive the No.18 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing. Last Friday, Busch claimed his Nationwide record-tying 10th victory of the season.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.