For golf, it's the Summer of Rules

Golf Betting Lines

08/25/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I know the feeling.

You wake up in the morning and realize one of three things has happened: 1) You have forgotten to set your alarm; 2) You have set your alarm, but woke up and turned it off; or 3) You set your alarm, which for some reason didn't go off.

Immediately you know something is wrong. It's too bright outside for when you were supposed to be awake. Your circadian rhythm is percussing like a drumline.

You sit up and call out loud, "Oh, crap!" Only you probably don't say "crap."

Jim Furyk knows the feeling, too. He woke up at 7:23 on Wednesday morning, seven minutes before he was supposed to be on the tee for his pro-am start at The Barclays. Furyk rushed to the course -- he didn't have time to put on a belt or socks and his shoes weren't tied -- but arrived in the locker room at 7:35, five minutes after his tee time.

He was disqualified from the tournament under the PGA Tour rule that says any player who misses a pro-am time, except for cases involving an injury or family emergency, is ineligible to play in that week's event.

So which situation got Furyk? That would be number 3.

"I overslept. I always use my phone as an alarm and it had no power this morning," Furyk said. "I don't know if something happened with the charger or what but I never got it."

Tour rules official Slugger White said his hands were tied.

"A commitment to play in the tournament is a commitment to play in the pro- am," said White. "It is unfortunate for Jim. It is unfortunate for the tournament. He is a fan favorite and everybody likes him."

Furyk made the PGA Tour playoffs -- which start at The Barclays -- after finishing No. 3 in regular season FedEx Cup points. He should safely make it through to the end -- fields are pared down weekly from 125 to 100 to 70 and then 30 for the finale at the Tour Championship. But he will still miss out on a $7.5 million tournament, and the chance to improve his position, for breaking one of golf's myriad rules.

"I played my heart out all year," said Furyk, who has won twice this season and is ranked No. 6 in the world. "I've got no one to blame but myself."

Of course, Furyk is only the latest in a line of golfers who have had run-ins with the rule book this year.

In April, three LPGA Tour players were disqualified from the season's first major, the Kraft Nabisco Championship, for missing their pro-am times. Among them was Maria Hjorth, who took to her Twitter account Wednesday to comment on Furyk's ouster.

"So I am not the only one getting dq'd from an event for missing a proam," Hjorth wrote. "Heard Jim F. slept in today and will not be playing. Stupid rule!"

Coincidentally, Furyk was the beneficiary of a rules infraction a couple of weeks later when Brian Davis called a two-stroke penalty on himself in a playoff at the Heritage. Davis' club hit a loose impediment in a hazard next to the green and Furyk won the tournament.

"I'm happy I won," Furyk said at the time, "but I feel badly for him."

"Live by the rules," said Davis.

And die by them.

Last Saturday, LPGA player Juli Inkster was disqualified from the Safeway Classic for using a weighted "donut" on her club while she warmed up before hitting her tee shot at the 10th hole.

The same day, Canadian Tour player Jose de Jesus Rodriguez was disqualified after failing to sign his scorecard for the third round of the Seaforth Country Classic. The score? A 10-under 61 that had Rodriguez in the lead by three shots.

"It's harsh," said Darren Griff, who assumed the 54-hole lead. "There's not much you can say."

Inkster was ratted out by a TV viewer who spotted the infraction and e-mailed the tour. The golf Hall of Famer was trying to stay loose during a 30-minute wait at the hole.

"It had no effect on my game whatsoever, but it is what it is," she said. "I'm very disappointed."

Inkster violated a rule in the USGA book regarding the use of artificial devices or unusual equipment. It's the same rule -- 14-3 -- that got NFL great Jerry Rice disqualified from a Nationwide Tour event in May. Rice's caddie was pinched for using a range-finder to measure distance.

Dustin Johnson's caddie was at least partially to blame when Johnson was disqualified from the PGA Championship two weeks ago for grounding his club in a bunker on the final hole.

Johnson missed out on a playoff that was won by Martin Kaymer after committing one of the biggest rules blunders in golf history. His caddie and the walking rules official shared in the blame, but ultimately the mistake was Johnson's.

"Never once did it cross my mind it was a sand trap," he said.

Sadly, I am also guilty of a rules infraction. I have been disqualified from my 9-hole Tuesday night league for failing to post the minimum number of scores. Seems I was supposed to play at least eight times. I played seven.

Oh, crap.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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