Als seek return to win column in clash with Bombers

Football Betting Lines

08/18/2010 - Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hoping to bounce back from just their second loss of the season, the Montreal Alouettes entertain the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at McGill Stadium on Thursday night.

According to the most recent power rankings in the CFL, this matchup pits the second and third-strongest clubs against each other, despite the Blue Bombers having just two victories on the season thus far.

Last week the Bombers were handed their third straight loss and the fifth in the last six attempts as they bowed to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats by a final of 39-28. In a matter of just seven weeks, the matchup marked the fourth time the two division foes had met and left Hamilton with a 3-1 season series advantage as a result.

Buck Pierce was back in as the starter at quarterback for the Blue Bombers, but he failed to make much of a difference as he completed just 7-of-12 passes for 63 yards, leading to one touchdown and one interception. Head coach Paul LaPolice felt Pierce had trouble moving and his lack of mobility was throwing off his accuracy, so the head coach decided to insert Steven Jyles back into the lineup. While the backup signal-caller didn't lead his team to victory, he did manage to convert 14-of-22 passes for 227 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

The other problem that arose for the Blue Bombers just before the game started was an injury to kicker Louie Sakoda, thus causing the team to change its game plan.

As for the Alouettes, a team that was leading the Eastern Division with a 5-1 mark heading into its contest with Toronto last weekend, they were dealt a surprising blow in their 37-22 loss to the Argonauts on the road.

Quarterback Anthony Calvillo converted 37-of-49 passes for 450 yards and three touchdowns, to go along with one interception, but early in the game there was a question about his ability to hold onto the ball due to an injured finger.

The Als started off the meeting slow, failing to score a single point in a quarter for the first time this season as they were blanked in the opening frame. Calvillo did up his all-time touchdown total to 369 in the decision, leaving him just 25 behind the CFL's all-time leader, Damon Allen, but surely the signal-caller would have preferred the win instead. Heading into the matchup with Toronto the Als had dominated the series, winning seven in a row over the Argos.

Despite the setback, slotback Ben Cahoon continued his assault on the history books as he reeled in a game-high 10 passes for 99 yards. With the effort Cahoon moved into second place all-time on the CFL receptions list, moving past Darren Flutie who had 972 catches in his 12 seasons. Now in his 13th campaign Cahoon, who has advanced his streak of 134 games with at least one reception and is third all-time behind Don Narcisse (216) and Tony Gabriel (137), is up to 981 catches for his career and trails only Terry Vaughn who was responsible for 1,006 receptions during his amazing career.

Even though Calvillo had a huge game in terms of numbers last week, the situation with his hand is still a concern for the Als, not to mention the lack of productivity from running back Avon Cobourne who gained a mere 26 yards on 11 carries. It was the second straight week that Cobourne had posted a weak effort, having logged just 34 yards on seven attempts versus Saskatchewan. The Als were expecting Cobourne to have a game that was much like the effort he put together against Toronto at the end of July when he gained 115 yards on the ground and another 116 yards through the air, but it just wasn't meant to be.

Because of the last two weeks, Cobourne has dropped to seventh in the league in rushing with only 403 yards on 82 attempts, while someone like Winnipeg's Fred Reid is fifth in the CFL after seven games with his 499 yards, averaging better than six yards per attempt.

The big question for this game will be which quarterback will be seeing the most action for the Blue Bombers. But whether it is Pierce or Jyles, the main target down the field will remain the same. Averaging close to 20 yards per catch, Terrence Edwards has been eating up the yards for the Bombers and ranks second in the league with his 687 yards at the moment. His seven touchdown catches, two of which he made last week, have him pacing the entire league. The rest of the pass catchers on the Winnipeg roster have combined for only five TD receptions, so that says a lot about how valuable Edwards is to the success of this group.

Conversely, as big a game as Cahoon had for the Als last weekend, he has still not made it into the end zone in 2010 and is averaging barely half the yards (10.5 per catch) that Edwards is at the moment.

According to league records, Montreal maintains a 39-32-7 advantage over the Blue Bombers in regular-season meetings dating back to 1946, the most recent of those encounters taking place last November with Montreal posting a 48-13 win. A week earlier it was Winnipeg that thumped the Als in a 41-24 decision on its home field.

The teams are scheduled to collide two more times during the regular season, on September 24 in Winnipeg, and back here again in the middle of October.

Wwwvegaspalms Football Betting News

<< Yankees resume series with Tigers in the Bronx
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees will once again be without star third baseman Alex Rodriguez this evening when they continue their four-game series against the Detroit Tigers at Yankee Stadium. Rodriguez left Monday's tilt with

<< Eli Manning back on the field with Giants on Wed.
ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) -Eli Manning is back on the field.The New York Giants quarterback joined teammates for stretching on Wednesday morning at training camp at the University at Albany.Manning, who needed 12 stitches to close a gash on the left side of

<< Hurricanes' Thomas granted extra year
Coral Gables, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Miami-Florida forward Adrian Thomas was given an extra year of eligibility by the NCAA after injuries cost him nearly two full seasons. Thomas suffered back-to-back season-ending injuries four gam

<< Kershaw pitches Dodgers past Rockies
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Clayton Kershaw pitched seven scoreless innings to lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to a 6-0 win over the Colorado Rockies in the opener of a three-game series. Kershaw (11-7) allowed five hits and recorde

<< A's surge late to beat Jays
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coco Crisp went 3-for-4 with a walk and scored the go-ahead run in the seventh inning, as the Oakland Athletics rallied for a 6-2 win over the Toronto Blue Jays in the middle contest of a three-game series.

Hamilton visits Toronto in pivotal Eastern Division matchup >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Currently tied for first place in the Eastern Division, the Toronto Argonauts try to continue their recent run of success as they face off against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in a divisional showdown at the Rogers Cen

Slumping Cards turn to Wainwright in finale with Brewers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Brewers have gotten a first-hand look this year at just how dominating St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright can be. Looking to play the role of spoiler, the team gets a chance this afternoon to deal the All-S

Padres aim to keep rolling in matinee vs. Cubs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Continued dominance on the mound has given the San Diego Padres their largest division lead of the season. Clayton Richard will try to keep that momentum going and win a fourth straight decision for the second time this ye

Red Sox go for ninth straight win over Angels >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox try to beat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for the ninth straight time this evening when the two teams continue their three-game set at Fenway Park. Boston continued its recent mastery of the

Phils put streak on line in second showdown with Giants >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies are certainly capable of winning a fourth straight National League East title, but getting into the playoffs is the ultimate goal. Now a game up on the San Francisco Giants for the NL Wild Card po

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.