Aiken leads European Tour opener

Golf Betting Lines

01/05/2012 - East London, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - South Africa's Thomas Aiken fired a nine-under 64 on Thursday to take the opening-round lead of the Africa Open, the first event on the 2012 European Tour schedule.

Aiken, last year's Open de Espana winner, is one shot clear at the par-73 East London Golf Club.

Two-time U.S. Open champion Retief Goosen, who had the honor of hitting the first tee shot in the 2012 Race to Dubai, and fellow South African Jaco Ahlers are tied for second at eight-under 65.

In fact, players from the home country are doing quite well.

Michael Du Toit and Dean O'Riley, both South Africans, share fourth with Welshman Phillip Price at seven-under 66.

Aiken played in the same group with Goosen on Thursday off No. 9 (due to course logistics, the second wave of players went off nine, instead of 10). Aiken broke into red figures in spectacular fashion. He hit a good two-iron to the par-five 11th green for his second shot and holed the eagle putt.

Aiken birdied 16, 17 and 18 to head to the first tee at five-under par. He went lower thanks again to the two-iron. Aiken got to a par-five third green in two with that trusty club, and once again, made eagle.

"I have had that two-iron for seven years and it is the only club from my old bag that conforms with groove regulations," said Aiken. "I find it very versatile and it is one of my favorite clubs. I had 230 yards to the hole on the third, and a similar yardage on 11. Managed to get the yardage right and I hit two perfect shots."

Aiken parred the fourth after his second eagle of the round, but got to nine- under par thanks to back-to-back birdies at five and six. He parred his last two holes for a somewhat surprising first-round lead.

"I wasn't really expecting that after two weeks without touching a club," admitted Aiken. "It was a great morning this morning -- early start, and the scoring conditions were good. It was out there for the taking and luckily I hit some really good shots and made putts.

"I really enjoyed the round today. This is not the longest course, but it bites if you go askew. Anything off the line on this course is pretty much a reload off the tee, which makes it a thinking man's course. There are a lot of risk-and-reward holes -- a couple of drivable par fours and tricky par threes -- and I think that a lot of new courses lack that challenge."

Maarten Lafeber, Charles-Edouard Russo, Richard Bland, JJ Senekal, Danny Willett and Shaun Norris share seventh place at six-under 67.

NOTES: Defending champion and former British Open winner Louis Oosthuizen is in the mix after a four-under 69 on Thursday...Aiken has won several times on the South African Tour, which is co-sponsoring this championship...Aiken, Goosen and Peter Hedblom, the third member of the group, combined to go 18- under par in round one...Last year's Race to Dubai winner and world No. 1 Luke Donald, is not on hand this week.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.